Answer box
The default-vs-actual view shows, per supplier per product per CN code: the EU default value plus the current year’s mark-up, the supplier’s calculated actual (not yet verified), the estimated gap per tonne, and the estimated total cost difference across your 2026 import volume. Every row is labelled “estimate” until the actual value is verified. We never label a value “verified” unless an EU-accredited verifier has issued a positive opinion for it.
The view
For every product × supplier combination:
| Column | What it is |
|---|---|
| CN code | 8-digit heading |
| Default + mark-up | Current year’s default per IR 2026/1740 + the yearly uplift |
| Calculated actual | What the engine computes from the supplier’s data (unverified) |
| Gap per tonne | Difference between the two |
| 2026 import tonnes | From your supplier list |
| Estimated cost gap | Gap × tonnes × current certificate price |
| Verification status | Not started / in progress / positive opinion |
Every row says “estimate” until the row’s verification status is “positive opinion”. Hover-tooltips explain exactly what each column represents and link to the methodology.
How importers use it
1. Prioritise who to engage with first
The suppliers where the gap × tonnes is biggest are usually the ones worth the time. The dashboard sorts by estimated cost gap so you see the biggest levers first.
2. Decide where paying for verification is worth it
Verification has a per-installation cost. If the estimated cost gap is much larger than the verification fee, the maths is obvious. If it’s close, the view helps you decide.
3. Share with procurement
Procurement often doesn’t know which suppliers would materially cut CBAM cost with real data. The dashboard produces a one-page summary per supplier that procurement can walk into a sourcing conversation.
4. Negotiate with the supplier
Showing the supplier what the EU default plus mark-up costs you — and what their real data would cost instead — turns the CBAM request from compliance homework into a shared commercial conversation.
The honesty rules
- “Estimate” everywhere until verified. The word verified appears on a row only after a positive verifier opinion is logged against that row.
- Current certificate price, updated weekly from the ETS tracker, with the exact date shown next to the figure.
- Qualified or negative verifier opinions push the row back to default + mark-up, not back to the unverified actual.
- Changes recalculate the view, but the historical snapshot is retained in the audit log so you can see how your position changed.
What the view does not do
- Give investment advice.
- Guarantee what any specific verifier will accept.
- Produce a “savings” number. The word savings implies certainty we can’t claim before verification.